Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Preparing For The Worst With Iran

Derek Chollet at DemocracyArsenal thinks we had better prepare for the worst regarding a nuclear Iran. As he sees it, even if the US and Europe handle everything perfectly from here, we're basically running out of time, and need to start planning for a Middle East Cold War. He's not saying it's inevitable, but the chances of political and economic sanctions stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions are remote, especially given the unlikeliness of Russia and China going along with any sanctions tough enough to carry some weight with the mullahs and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Chollet offers some diplomatic solutions, but stresses, "It’s not just prevention we have to worry about; it’s containment and deterrence." I wonder if containment and deterrence are possible with a regime that still believes in the Muslim version of Manifest Destiny. Time will tell.